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A statement issued today by the National Weather Service is blunt.
If the region gets slammed with heavy rain over the next two days, it says, we've got "big problems."
The Mon-Yough area is eying its namesake rivers warily and preparing for either the usual spring floods --- or something much more dramatic.
Forecasters say the Youghiogheny and Monongahela will start overflowing their banks Saturday night, but the extent of the flooding will largely depend on the amount of rain received upstream.
. . .
Current predictions call for flooding that could force the evacuation of Harrison Village and Isbir Manor in the Third Ward, along with homes in nearby communities such as West Elizabeth and Sutersville.
Officials caution that things will get worse in a hurry if the region gets more rain than expected.
Snow representing between two and seven inches of rain has already melted and filled the creeks and streams that flow into the Yough and Mon, according to the NWS in Moon Township.
. . .
According to the NWS in Moon Township, Western Pennsylvania could get anywhere from a half-inch to two inches of rain tonight and tomorrow.
Severe thunderstorms are also possible Saturday.
That rain will swell rivers already running high as three to four feet of snow has melted this week. This morning, the Monongahela was at 16 feet in Elizabeth and 11 feet in Braddock. By this afternoon, it had gone up a foot.
Although the heaviest rain is expected to fall over central Pennsylvania, if it moves further west, forecasters say the effect could be catastrophic.
. . .
The Youghiogheny River is currently expected to crest at 1 a.m. Sunday in Connellsville and at 8 a.m. at Sutersville, which is 14 river miles from Downtown McKeesport.
At Sutersville, the river is expected to reach nearly three feet above flood stage --- which would reach some businesses and homes in the borough, along with the bike trail on the left bank of the Yough.
The Monongahela is expected to crest Sunday afternoon at four feet above flood stage in Charleroi, three feet above flood stage in
Elizabeth, and two feet above flood stage at
Braddock.
. . .
Those figures are just shy of what federal officials consider a "major flood."
When the Mon goes two feet above flood stage in Braddock, the Youghiogheny receives so-called "backwater" flooding, backing up into sewers along Market Street in Downtown McKeesport, and flowing into the community park and boat launch along the Yough under the Boston Bridge in Elizabeth Township.
At three feet above flood stage in Elizabeth, many homes in West Elizabeth along First and Water streets will start to take on water, federal officials said.
. . .
Local officials are worried about a repeat of the flood of January 1996, which came after warm temperatures and rain melted more than two feet of snow.
That flood put much of the lower Third Ward underwater, along with parts of Elizabeth and West Elizabeth, and Glenn Avenue in Port Vue. Route 837 was closed for several days between Clairton and Dravosburg.
Current conditions "are similar" to the conditions that created that flood, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which maintains the navigation channels and flood control dams on the Monongahela, Allegheny and Ohio rivers.
. . .
Meanwhile, the Army Corps last night released a statement to reassure residents that its flood control reservoirs are using only a fraction of their capacity.
The reservoirs have been steadily drained since February's heavy snows, officials said.
"We have an abundant amount of space to store water," said Werner Loehlein, water management chief for the Pittsburgh District. "We can adjust our operations as conditions dictate."
. . .
The Youghiogheny River reservoir currently has all of its flood storage capacity available, according to Army Corps data collected Friday morning. All other reservoirs in the Pittsburgh area were at less than a quarter of their flood storage capacity.
As a result, those reservoirs can capture more than 30 percent of both the stormwater runoff and melted snow, and release the water in a controlled manner after the threat of flooding has eased, Loehlein said.
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