Category: default || By jt3y

My crystal ball looks an awful lot like a glass ashtray from the PAT bus station downtown, but here are my predictions (hey, if John McIntire can do it, then I can do it, right?), based on nothing but guesses. If I'm right, it's pure dumb luck, frankly:

Casey by 5 points over Santorum: The polls have been saying that Bob "Bob" Casey Jr. has a 7 to 11 point lead, but I don't buy it. Casey's support is a mile wide and an inch deep, while Sen. Torquemada's supporters are true believers.

I suspect most people pressing the "Casey" button are voting against Tricky Ricky, not for Casey (with the possible exceptions of his mom Ellen, and his wife Terese, and I'm not totally sure about them). That means if it was raining or if there was a good "Showcase Showdown" on "The Price is Right," I think a lot of potential Casey voters stayed home.

Rendell by 8 points over Swann: Again, the polls have been showing Fast Eddie with double-digit leads, but I think the dynamics in this race are almost a mirror image of the Casey-Santorum matchup: I think a lot of people are voting against Rendell rather than for Swann. For that reason, it's not going to be a blowout like the Bob Casey Sr.- Barbara Hafer race in 1990.

A friend told me today that he held his nose and voted for Swann "even though I know he's an empty suit." Well, maybe it's better to vote for an empty suit than for one that's stuffed with Grade-A baloney. But I don't think there's enough of a protest vote for Swann to win.

Hart by 3 over Altmire: I think Missy wins by a chin nose. I think she's generally well-liked and will get a lot of crossover support from Democrats, and I think she successfully has painted Jason Altmire as a lawyer and a lobbyist --- both dirty words to most people.

Murphy by 8 over Kluko: I don't think Chad "Who?" Kluko ever overcame his name recognition problem, and I think residents of Tim "Not Tom" Murphy's district went into the voting booth and said, "why change?" That's despite Murphy's televised meltdown; he's otherwise dull and inoffensive, and I predict they'll be celebrating tonight in the Murphy household, no doubt with butter-bread sandwiches, plain yogurt and skim milk.

Saints by 6 over Steelers: Sorry, I got carried away.

By the way, back east in Casey Country, an anonymous pundit who calls himself "A Big Fat Slob" has been doing yeoman's work in analyzing Pennsylvania politics. Go check him out. (Tube City hard hat tip: Jonathan Potts.)